Why your holiday marketing is missing the mark (and costing you sales)

Cordial, the cross-channel marketing platform, releases data from a survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers to uncover critical insights about holiday shopping behavior — and the growing gap between how brands communicate and what consumers actually want.

The price sensitivity paradox

While 44% of consumers plan to spend about the same as last year, there’s a striking generational divide in spending intentions. Millennials and Gen Z are planning to open their wallets wider, with 43% and 51% respectively, anticipating increased holiday spending compared to other generations.

Yet here’s the paradox: Despite maintaining or increasing budgets, price and promotions are more important this year than last for 61% of consumers — “much more important” for 33% of consumers. Present-day consumers demand more value for every dollar spent.

Economic conditions are the driving force. A significant 67% of consumers report that current inflation and interest rates will limit their spending, with 24% saying these conditions “significantly limit” their budgets. Even consumers planning to spend more are being strategic about where those dollars go.

What this tells us: Price-conscious doesn’t mean budget-strapped. Today’s consumers, particularly younger generations, have spending power but expect brands to earn it through compelling value propositions. Organizations relying solely on brand loyalty, without effective competitive pricing strategies, risk losing market share to competitors who understand this new calculus.

Black Friday’s evolution: Earlier, longer, more fragmented

The traditional Black Friday weekend is no longer the retail anchor it once was. Only 20% of consumers plan to start their holiday shopping on Black Friday weekend, with 59% starting earlier and 22% shopping after or at the last minute.

Interestingly, Gen Z bucks this trend, with 26% planning to utilize Black Friday — the highest among all generations. This suggests the youngest shoppers still see value in the concentrated deal event, while other generations have moved toward extended shopping windows.

The research channels tell the story: Consumers are casting a wide net, with retailer websites leading at 60%, followed by social media (45%), retailer apps (36%), retailer emails (36%), and traditional advertising (35%). Word of mouth still matters (30%), while newer channels, such as SMS (14%) and personal AI agents (13%), gain traction.

What this tells us: The “Black Friday blitz” strategy is fundamentally misaligned with how most consumers shop today. Brands need extended campaign windows with sustained messaging across multiple touchpoints. The compressed, one-weekend approach leaves 80% of shoppers underserved during their actual purchase windows. Organizations must rethink campaign timing and channel mix to match consumer behavior rather than forcing consumers to adapt to traditional retail calendars.

The AI adoption curve: Faster than you think

Among consumers, 40% are likely to use AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude to assist with actual shopping. Another 21% are still unsure, suggesting this number could climb.

The generational breakdown reveals where this trend is heading: 51% of Millennials and 56% of Gen Z are likely to use AI tools for holiday shopping assistance. And 17% would be “very likely” to trust and make a purchase based on the recommendation of an AI tool, with another 31% being “somewhat likely.” Trust in AI-recommended brands spikes among younger consumers, with 58% of Millennials and 64% of Gen Z likely to trust them.

What this tells us: AI isn’t on its way to holiday shopping — it’s already here, and younger consumers are leading adoption. Brands not optimizing for AI discoverability (through clear product information, structured data, and authentic reviews) will grow invisible to a large segment of high-intent shoppers. As Gen Z and Millennials increase their spending power, this channel will shift from experimental to essential.

The personalization problem no one’s talking about

Only 34% of consumers feel brands truly understand their needs when sending marketing messages. Just 10% say brands “always” understand them, while 24% say they are understood “often.” The most common response? “Sometimes” (44%).

The disconnect grows more pronounced with older generations, suggesting brands may be over-indexing on younger consumer preferences while alienating Baby Boomers and Gen X.

However, consumers are surprisingly forgiving. Only 15% would immediately lose trust if a brand misinterpreted their needs through marketing. The majority (43%) would give brands another chance, while 35% say it wouldn’t impact their trust at all.

What this tells us: Consumers know marketing is imperfect, but they’re still evaluating whether brands are even trying to understand them. The low “always understands me” rate (10%) suggests most personalization efforts feel generic or off-target. But the forgiveness factor creates an opportunity: Brands that demonstrate they’re listening and adapting — even imperfectly — can build loyalty. The real risk isn’t getting it wrong once; it’s demonstrating no understanding at all.

Confidence amid uncertainty

Despite economic headwinds, 51% of consumers aren’t worried about gift availability this holiday season. This confidence suggests lessons learned from pandemic-era supply chain disruptions have been absorbed, either through improved retail operations or adjusted consumer expectations.

This mindset shift has profound implications for marketing strategy. Scarcity messaging, which dominated recent holiday seasons, may ring hollow this year. Consumers expect products to be readily available; the competition now centers on value, relevance, and convenience.

What this tells us: Fear-based marketing around limited availability has diminishing returns. Consumers have recalibrated their expectations and trust that products will be in stock. Brands should shift from “buy now before it’s gone” messaging to “buy now because it’s right for you.” The competitive battleground has moved from availability to value proposition.

The opportunity ahead

With spending intentions solid but value expectations high, understanding these shifting dynamics gives brands a significant competitive advantage. The survey reveals specific, actionable insights: Extend campaigns beyond Black Friday weekend, optimize for AI discovery, create channel-diverse touchpoints, demonstrate price competitiveness, and above all, show that you understand individual consumer needs rather than just broadcasting generic promotions.

The brands that win this holiday season won’t just be those with the biggest budget; it’ll be those that align their strategies with how consumers actually shop in 2025.

This research is based on a survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers aged 18 and older conducted by Dynata on behalf of Cordial in October 2025. The sample was designed to be representative of the U.S. adult population. For analyses referencing generational groups, the following age ranges were used: Generation Z (10-25 years), Millennials (26-41 years), Generation X (42-57 years), and Baby Boomers (58-76 years).