2026 holiday headlines

The holiday season now starts in October. But that’s not when shoppers will not finish their shopping.

Amazon’s fall deal event will get people looking, and other retailers can benefit from the attention it creates. But shoppers have learned to wait for a better offer. In Cordial’s survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers, 55% said discounts and promotions matter more to them this year than last. Free shipping influences where 61% decide to buy, while AI is becoming another way to research products and deals.

Those findings point to a longer holiday season with more shopping moments, more ways to compare options, and little patience for friction. How will this season play out? 

Consumer agents shape the shortlist 

Agentic commerce is often described as an AI assistant clicking “buy” on a shopper’s behalf. This single use case overlooks where AI influences purchases and helps decide what belongs in the cart at all. Nearly half of consumers (42%) are at least somewhat likely to use AI tools during holiday shopping. Among the shopping tasks tested, comparing prices and finding deals led at 43%, followed by comparing products or brands at 38%. AI has become integral to the research and evaluation process, alongside websites, stores, and other familiar sources.

Smaller brands have an opportunity here. A shopper asking for a gift that meets a specific need may encounter a product they would never have found by browsing a crowded category page. Brands can improve their chances by making product details, price, availability, and distinguishing features clear and easy to find. An assistant cannot recommend a product without understanding it or the offer. 

Autonomous buying will develop more gradually. Thirteen percent of respondents said they’re comfortable letting an AI agent make a holiday purchase without reviewing it first. This trust will build first around familiar, lower-risk items, where an assistant can draw on known preferences and purchase history.  Retailers should judge AI’s impact by how much it helps shoppers move from inspiration to a confident decision, not simply by whether an agent completes checkout. Trust, accurate information, and a good experience determine whether shoppers come back.

Cyber fall brings peaks and valleys

The holiday shopping commencement has moved from Cyber Monday to Cyber Week to Cyber Month. But now, due to brand and consumer behavior, I’d call it “Cyber Fall.” Thirty-six percent of shoppers in Cordial’s survey plan to start before November, while only 19% plan to begin on Black Friday weekend. Amazon’s October deal event is an early opportunity to reach them.

An early start doesn’t mean demand will remain elevated every week through December. I expect a spike around Amazon’s fall event, a leveling off afterward, and renewed activity as Black Friday and Cyber Monday approach. Shoppers may browse early but hold out for stronger prices later. More than half say a longer promotional window makes them more likely to engage with brand messages, but engagement doesn’t equal immediate purchases.

Retailers should show up for the October moment with offers worth considering. But they shouldn’t maintain the same discount or message volume throughout fall. Winning retailers will give shoppers a reason to buy at each point in the season, without signaling cause to wait for a better deal.

Consumers win the game of discount chicken

Discount chicken is the standoff between retailers and shoppers over holiday prices…will play out the same way as most years (aside from when the pandemic disrupted the supply chain):

• Retailers flinch first: They plan a promotional calendar, then drop it after the first weekend and start chasing demand with earlier and more frequent discounts.
• Consumers wait: Years of conditioning have taught shoppers that the deepest deals come at Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The early offers draw browsers but not buyers, because shoppers won’t necessarily bite on the uninspiring deals.
• Consumers win: People will wait and be patient. The discount chicken game is back and consumers will ultimately win.

Free and convenient fulfillment win 

Retailers spend years making offers more relevant to individual shoppers. Relevance matters, but shoppers have practical questions: How much will this cost me? When will it arrive? How easily can I return it?

In Cordial’s survey, free shipping was the most common influence on where to buy (61%). A larger discount followed at 45%, while personalized recommendations came in at 16%. Amazon sets a high bar for convenience, and shoppers carry those expectations into every retailer they visit virtually.

As a result, we’ll see retailers start promoting free shipping, two-day shipping, and related offers. These details impact more than checkout experiences. Clear delivery dates, accessible pickup options, and straightforward return instructions can offer someone the confidence to buy. 

Returns deserve the same care. If handled well, returns are a data-gathering, fact-finding mission for retailers, helping them understand what went wrong and how to help a customer find the item they actually want. 

Before increasing the frequency of holiday messages, retailers should ensure those messages address these questions. An offer feels less compelling if a shopper has to hunt for delivery deadlines or discovers unexpected shipping costs.

Context and Memory Drives Relevance across Channels

Holiday purchases might start with a social post, continue on a website, pause while the shopper checks an AI assistant, and end with pickup at a store. The customer experiences one shopping trip, even if the retailer measures several channels.

Shopping starting points now vary greatly. Retailer websites remain the most common place to research deals at 53%, followed by social media at 39%. Apps, email, AI assistants, and the physical store also play a role. 

Year after year, a strict division between ecommerce and store sales proves less useful as a guide to the customer experience. Retailers must recognize intent as shoppers move between touchpoints. Make the next step easy. If someone browses a gift online, can they see whether it is available nearby? If they reserve it for pickup, does the follow-up message reflect that decision? If they return it, does the brand know enough to help rather than send another promotion for the same item?

Transactions may occur in one place, but the decision-making process spans locations.